The bookies’ odds have now revealed who is most likely winner of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 tonight (Saturday May 11).
The odds have shifted somewhat, now that The Netherlands’ Eurovision contestant Joost Klein has been disqualified from the contest after being accused of making verbal threats towards a female member of production crew, police have said.
According to Eurovision World, the favourites to win the competition have been revealed. Coming in first place is Croatia, whose entry Baby Lasagna currently has a 43 per cent chance at snagging the crown this year with their song ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’. This has jumped up from 36 per cent, following the second night of the semi-finals earlier this week (May 9).
Croatia continues out in front by a considerable margin, now holding over a 20-point lead on the second placed contender, which is now Israel’s Eden Golan with ‘Hurricane’. That song, which has been at the centre of a storm of controversy, is now rated as having a 20 per cent chance of winning. This is a huge jump from earlier in the week, when it sat on just a two per cent chance.
Many have voiced strong opposition to Israel being allowed to compete in the 2024 edition of the song contest in light of the ongoing conflict in Gaza, but the song came through the semi-finals process on Thursday and is now considered one of the favourites to win. Golan’s performance at the dress rehearsal on Wednesday (May 8) had been booed by the audience.
Switzerland’s Nemo, with their song ‘The Code’, is currently in third place on 15 per cent, which is down from 17 per cent earlier in the week.
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Tied for fourth place down on four per cent each are Ireland’s ‘ouija-pop’ entrant Bambie Thug, who will be the first Irish artist to reach the Eurovision final in six years with ‘Doomsday Blue’, and France’s Slimane with ‘Mon Amour’.
Ukraine’s Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil with ‘Teresa and Maria’ follow up with three per cent, while Italy’s Angelina Mango had been riding high in third place with ‘La Noia’ having been given a 10 per cent chance of winning, but that song is now only rated with a two per cent chance.
A host of other countries are tied on one per cent chance, including the UK’s Olly Alexander. Hosts Sweden, Finland, Greece, Lithuania, Norway, Austria and Armenia are also given the same odds.
Find a list of the predicted Top 10 below:
- Croatia – Baby Lasagna – ‘Rim Tim Tagi Dim’ – 43%
- Israel – Eden Golan – ‘Hurricane’ – 20%
- Switzerland – Nemo – ‘The Code’ – 15%
- Ireland – Bambie Thug – ‘Doomsday Blue’ – 4%
- France – Slimane – ‘Mon amour’ – 4%
- Ukraine – Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil – ‘Teresa & Maria’ – 2%
- Italy – Angelina Mango – ‘La noia’ – 2%
- United Kingdom – Olly Alexander – ‘Dizzy’ – 1%
- Greece – Marina Satti – ‘Zari’ – 1%
- Finland – Windows95man – ‘No Rules!’ – 1%
The final line-up has now been completed, following Thursday’s second semi-final. 26 countries will take part in the final – hosts Sweden, the ‘big five’ of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, and the 20 qualifiers from the semi-finals.
On the night, Sweden will perform first, with favourites Croatia having to wait until the 23rd performance to see if they can convert their hype into success. The UK will go in 13th, while Ireland will be in 10th. Israel’s Eden Golan will be the sixth performer. Check out the running order and who’s competing here.
Recently, the European Broadcasting Union put out a statement to warn against the “abuse and harassment” artists were facing for their participation.
The Deputy Director of the EBU wrote that whilst the EBU “strongly” supports “freedom of speech and the right to express opinions in a democratic society”, “we firmly oppose any form of online abuse, hate speech, or harassment directed at our artists or any individuals associated with the contest.
“This is unacceptable and totally unfair, given the artists have no role in this decision.”
There has been significant protests about this year’s Eurovision due to the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict. Over 1,000 Swedish artists called for Israel to be banned this year, such as Robyn, Fever Ray, and First Aid Kit, whilst over 1,400 Finnish music industry professionals have signed a petition to ban the country from taking part of the contest as well.
Artists such as Olly Alexander have faced calls to boycott the event as well; the singer initially signed a statement last December calling Israel an “apartheid state” and accusing it of genocide.
However, after receiving an open letter from numerous queer artists and individuals to boycott Eurovision last March, a number of Eurovision performers – including Ireland’s Bambie Thug, Norway’s Gåte, Portugal’s Iolanda and Alexander himself – responded to the letter saying they “firmly believe in the unifying power of music”, with Alexander later confirming he would not be boycotting Eurovision.
Bambie Thug addressed the situation in a recent interview with NME, saying: “It’s a lot when I know that my heart is in the right place and when it’s not my decision. I have had to take a break from social media because it is weighing on me. A lot of stuff is completely nasty and uncalled for.
“As artists, we’re easy targets, but at the end of the day, I have said that I don’t think they made the right decision,” they continued. “I still stand by that. But people should be coming for the EBU and for the broadcasters, not us as artists. I stand by my statement and I am completely for Palestine, and I think it’s ridiculous that it’s gone on for so long. I think the world is quite removed from its heart and its consciousness right now.”
When asked if they would support RTÉ hypothetically choosing to boycott Eurovision, they replied: “It’s their decision. I’m working for them, I would have no choice.”
Asked how else they intended to show their support to the people of Palestine on the night, Robinson replied: “Well, I can’t say anything.”
Earlier this week (May 7), the EBU doubled down on their decision not to boycott Israel over the war in Gaza, saying that to exclude Israeli broadcaster Kan from the competition would have been a “political decision”.
Speaking on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News, Jean Philip De Tender, the deputy director general of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) said: “I fully agree it is a family event and the great thing about this music competition is that it’s all about values. It’s about uniting onstage all of these young talents, these participants, and they do great. It’s about diversity and inclusion.
“But there are competition rules and you need to follow the competition rules and take decisions based on these competition rules. If you were to exclude Kan outside of these competition rules, that would have been a political decision, as such, which we cannot take.”
It comes after Eurovision organisers also recently confirmed that that they reserve the right to remove Palestinian flags and pro-Palestinian symbols during the contest.
The first wave of semi-final performances took place last night (May 7) in Sweden, and saw Bambie Thug become Ireland’s first finalist in the Eurovision Song Contest since 2018. That being said, the artist was forced to change the pro-Palestine message on their dress due to it “contravened contest rules that are designed to protect the non-political nature of the event”.
Speaking of the change, Bambie Thug said: “It was very important for me because I’m pro-justice and pro-peace. Unfortunately, I had to change those messages today to ‘crown the witch’ only (which was an) order from the EBU.”
Elsewhere at last night’s semis, Croatia and Finland both made it through into the final, alongside delegates from Luxembourg, Serbia, Ukraine, Portugal, Lithuania, Finland and Cyprus.
The second half of the semi-finals will take place tomorrow (May 9), and will see 16 countries including Israel, Greece, Malta, Denmark and Belgium compete – with 10 heading through to the finale.
In other news, Pet Shop Boys have responded to comparisons of ‘It’s A Sin’ to Olly Alexander’s Eurovision entry ‘Dizzy’.
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